Marx in America

 [Disclaimer: I'm a pastor, not a politician, but I've studied politics for decades because it is both fascinating and important. This piece should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any person or position. It is a theoretical observation.]

Socialism is coming to America.

That's what Karl Marx believed over 100 years ago.* He was wrong. Now we are hearing that if Joe Biden wins the White House Marx will be right after all. 

Clearly, I can't do this justice in a blog post (plus I'm not smart enough) but if socialism really was going to come to the U.S. in 2021 we should know a little of the history. So...here's a little.

• The idea of socialism goes way, way back but Marx approached it as more than an economic theory. He saw it as an evolutionary, historical process. 
• Marx came along just after the Industrial Revolution. Titans of industry began to emerge and economic classes began to stratify.
• Marx' thesis was this arrangement couldn't last. Eventually the "proletariat" (working class) would rebel against the bourgeoise (wealthy class) and take over. The end result would be a utopian state where all people give their full effort and all people receive from the community all that they need.

Our Socialist Past

• Despite the rhetoric, the United States has been far closer to socialism than it is today. In 1892 self-avowed socialist Francis Bellamy published the first version of our Pledge of Allegiance. 
• The Socialist Party of America ran a candidate for president in every election from 1900-1956. They peaked in 1912 with 6% of the vote, one of only 12 times a third party has garnered more than 5% of the vote and more than today's most popular minor party, the Libertarian party, has ever received.

Socialism was a big fad in the late 19th and early 20th century. Why? I have a theory. That era of American history is also known as the Gilded Age. It was a time, not long after his death, when it appeared Marx might be right. The rich were getting superrich. The poor were getting very poor. It had the appearances of a very wealthy time for the country, but in reality it was a very wealthy time only for the upper crust. It was also a time when there was a lot of resentment towards immigrants among the working class. Ring any bells?

If Marx were right, socialism and then communism should have been around the corner. So why was he wrong? An earlier teacher of mine, who was on the record as a left-wing Democrat, put it this way. "Marx's fallacy was that capitalism is capable of self-correction." 

One corrective measure was the creation of the income tax. Income tax was not allowed in the constitution, but became legal with the adoption of the 16th amendment in 1913. Note that this came right after the Socialists best shot at the White House. The top marginal rate (the tax rate for the highest of earners) began at 7%. Five years later it was 77%. It has varied since, but in its first 70 years of existence, the top right was at least 50% for all but 13 years. It spent15 years, under both Democrat and Republican presidents, over 90%. Income tax rate is obviously just one of many factors. We had the New Deal, Social Security, and Medicare to name just a few factors. 

One can certainly argue whether the social programs and higher taxes that pay for them are a good idea. It is not my purpose to take a position on that. I only want to point out this - one can easily see a different history where Marx was right. If the United States had not self-corrected from an extreme free-market maybe there would have been a revolt from the people. Or maybe there was a kind of revolt, just a peaceful one instead of a violent one, where voters helped us to self-correct. So socialism was avoided.**

Socialism Today

But since 1986 the top rate has never been even 40%. It may not be a coincidence that some say we have entered a Second Gilded Age. The working class is, again, fearful of immigrants taking jobs. The gap between the rich and poor is expanding. Academia debates whether the disparity has reached the highs of the Gilded Age or not but nobody denies that both income (think annual salary) and wealth (think savings, investments, housing, etc.) are rising much faster for the well-off than for the average Joe or Jill (not to mention the race-based gaps). 

So, while there is no socialist running for President this year***, there is definitely a rise in the number of people who claim socialism as an ideology or at least want some socialistic reforms. So does Marx have another chance? Could the U.S. actually move in a significantly socialist direction in 2020 and beyond?

Sure. It's 2020. Anything can happen. Seriously, though, the Democrats will almost certainly win the House, maybe 50/50 at winning the Senate, and barring a very significant change in the economy and pandemic are most likely going to win the presidency****. So, taking a stab at it, I'll say there's maybe a 40% chance they control both chambers and the presidency. The Supreme Court is not as conservative as we thought it would be thanks to Justice Roberts. So maybe some more socialistic policies could get through.

For some of you, that would be a dream come true. For others it would be a nightmare. So, if you are one who believes that socialism would be a horrible fate for the country, what can you do? I think there's actually a really simple answer. Give a little. 

We are approaching a time that is as ripe for massive social change as the Progressive Era, which followed the Gilded Age. I would contend that what protected the country from socialism at that moment in time was what my former teacher said - capitalists were able to self-correct. We didn't have to become a socialist country because we were able to make more moderate changes to pull us away from the extremes of the Gilded Age without full-blown socialism.

We are on an economic and social pendulum. Under Trump, we are swinging wildly toward one end of the pendulum. That's right where some people want us to be. But in a democracy, the extreme end of the pendulum is never sustainable. There will be an equal and opposite reaction. Which means swinging wildly to the left. Unless we self-correct to a more moderate swing to the left. If you are one who is opposed to, even scared of, socialism the answer isn't to run away from it. The answer is to make it a less desirable outcome by voluntarily moving some towards the center. Is it all that you want? Maybe not. But it may keep Marx out of America.

*Socialism and Communism are not exactly the same thing but, as best as I can tell, different people define both terms in different ways. One way to think of it is that communism is the fullest expression of socialism. Here's a pretty good short read on the subject.

**We've actually been sorta kinda socialist for a very long time. We have always had socialism in sectors. For example, we don't have a free-market system of deploying fire protection. We pay taxes so that the fire department protects all homes from fire regardless of ability to pay. To a lesser degree, energy companies and other infrastructure works the same way. Most of us will actually find ourselves agreeing that a pure, unadulterated free-market would not be good. Even the father of capitalism, Adam Smith, would say so. But that's for another time.

***Right wing media calls the Biden/Harris ticket the most liberal candidate in history. They have forgotten about George McGovern's run in 1972 and it's hard to argue that even he was as liberal/socialist as FDR. 

****OK, too many asterisks. No more. But I had to add this note. The idea that the polls are going to be wrong again this year like they were in 2016 is a misunderstanding of polls. The best polls gave Clinton around a 75% chance of winning. They didn't say 100%. The reality is national polls of her popularity were pretty darn close and with only a couple exceptions the state polls were within the margin of error. The truth is that 75% is not 100%. The swing states...swung. They all swung the same way. That could happen again this year, but it's not likely. If I were a betting man I'd put a lot on Biden right now. Again, not an endorsement just a prediction.