Ten Years Later - The UMC in 2028, pt. 1

General Conference happens every four years - except when it doesn't. Because of this year's special session we will have four general conferences in 10 years - 2019, 2020, 2024, and 2028. What will the UMC look like as we prepare for that 2028 General Conference? It depends largely on what happens in St. Louis three weeks from now. But I can give you a preview.

I really do believe that I can give you a preview. I've talked with people on all sides of the divide and read every document I can get my hands on. Every piece that I share here (except one that I note below) has data, documents, and/or conversations to back it up. I'm trying deliberately not to exaggerate or insert my own biases - though of course some of both may accidentally be inserted.

There are four realistic outcomes. 1) The Modified Traditional Plan (MTP) could pass, the One Church Plan (OCP) could pass either 2) with or 3) without an exit plan, and 4) We could leave with no plan passing. There are other proposals as well, but none of those proposals is viable. In part 1 I'm covering the three options that I hope we don't approve. In part 2 I'll look at the One Church Plan without an exit path, which is my personal preferred option.

If the Modified Traditional Plan Passes

If you've read anything I've written you know that this is not what I want. But it is possible for it to pass. If it does pass it will be by a small margin.

• It won't take effect until after General Conference 2020. The Traditional Plan was "fixed" with the insertion of Maxie Dunnam's Modified plan and some other revisions that were just released. Language has already been crafted to challenge the constitutionality of some of the revised provisions. Only the original TP has been reviewed by the Judicial Council and some of the fixes are likely not to pass muster. They will have to be fixed again in 2020.
• Some traditionalist churches will leave right away. the MTP has an exit provision and traditionalist leadership is openly saying that passing an exit path is a higher priority than passing the MTP. Multiple churches have said that even if the MTP passes they are strongly considering leaving. the WCA is planning for an April convention to create a new structure for those churches that do choose to leave. The question here is not whether traditional churches will leave, but how many. I can't venture a guess there. As far as 15 years ago some traditionalists have wanted out of the denomination. This is their opportunity.
• Some centrist churches will leave a little while later. Those of us who consider ourselves theological centrists will be in a bind. The traditional plan is not in keeping with our big tent approach to ministry and theology. There is no centrist or progressive version of the WCA because we really truly mean it when we say that we should all be able to live together. But there will be some churches who can't do that with the traditional plan and they will leave. It will take some time to formulate the best way to do this.
• The people that traditionalists most want to exit won't. I promise. I've spoken with them. Their attitude is that they won't be kicked out of their church. Remember that the traditional plan adds an exit plan for this group even though they never asked for it. This means that the traditionalist claim that their plan will avoid trials and lawsuits is just plain wrong. It could be that in 10 years time all of these people will have been forced out but it will not happen without extensive lawsuits and great expense. It doesn't require a lot of very determined people to make this real.
• There will be appointive chaos. It's widely acknowledged that our clergy tend to be more progressive than our congregations. Clergy who find the traditionalist plan unpalatable will leave, many more than congregations, leaving us with a clergy shortage for the remaining churches. This is probably a short to mid term problem. Ten years out I expect that enough of our churches will have closed without pastoral leadership that the problem will be resolved.

If Nothing Passes

This is what the WCA has stated privately that they believe is most likely although they are working hard to get more votes - especially to get votes for the exit plan. 

• Mass exodus if an exit plan passes. If we get to the final day in St. Louis without any plan having a majority vote the traditionalist narrative will be that the denomination has failed. We will likely be reminded that Keith Boyette, the WCA's president, called for the denomination to be dissolved and we will be told that we should at least just pass an exit path so that those who want to leave the sinking ship can go. At that point it will be hard not to pass such a plan and any number of churches, both traditional and progressive, will choose over the next few years to leave.
• We get to do it all again one year later. This is the only part of this entire piece that is pure speculation. I think that if we reach a decision in 2019, no matter what that decision is, it will not be undone one year later at GC2020. But if nothing passes then we will get to have the exact same argument again. 

If the One Church Plan Passes AND an Exit Plan Passes

An exit plan is antithetical to the One Church Plan. From a process standpoint, I don't think it is possible for GC to add one to the OCP. But GC could pass the OCP and also pass an exit plan.

• Exodus of traditional churches. I wish it wouldn't happen, truly, but it would. Think of it like the stock market collapse at the Great Depression. The WCA and friends have been very successful in making this appear to be a crisis. Traditionalist churches and pastors won't want to deal with the crisis. If there is an easy escape path they will take it.
• But not as many as some think. Two-thirds of U.S. delegates will vote for the One Church Plan. Guaranteed. If this was a U.S. only vote something like the One Church Plan would likely have been approved eight years ago. People want to be able to live together with different perspectives - in fact, we do it every Sunday morning in almost all of our churches. There are also practical realities like smaller churches that will struggle to find a pastor outside of the denomination. In the Great Plains (Kansas and Nebraska) the number I've heard thrown around by traditionalists is 50. Out of 1,000 churches, that would be a 5% loss. That's a lot. Every sheep matters. But it is not the flood that fear-mongers suggest. 
• The denomination will move left theologically. With fewer on the conservative wing, inevitably there will be movement to the left. This will appear to be a fulfillment of traditionalist predictions but as you'll see below only because it is a self-fulfilling prophesy.
• Central Conferences will be in a tough spot. Enough churches will have left that maintaining support for central conferences will be difficult. At the same time, those central conferences who leave the denomination will be allied with a group that is U.S. focused and will also be smaller. Remember that African conferences already believe they need more bishops and don't have the funds to fully pay for those bishops. If we are struggling to meet that goal now how could it possibly happen with a divided church?