The most pessimistic (from my point of view) estimates suggest that when all is said and done, about 25% of U.S. UMC churches will disaffiliate. It will definitely be at least 20% I think most of us thought we'd end up between 15% and 20%, so no doubt this is a higher number than we had hoped for. But consider this:
- As noted above, there are people and groups (the anonymously run "Leave UMC" comes to mind) who are fully invested in tearing the UMC down.
- Organizations like The IRD and Good News have staff teams and hundreds of thousands of dollars fully devoted to promoting disaffiliation.
- Disaffiliation forces have resorted to secular political rhetoric, using words like "woke" and "leftest" to provoke emotional and fear-based responses instead of logical and faith-based responses.
- Pastors allegedly have had people as young as 8 vote on disaffiliation, had last-minute selective membership drives to influence the vote, and in one case had their mother-in-law join the church only to vote against disaffiliation so that they could use the parliamentary procedure of "reconsideration" if the vote failed.
- Organizations are allowing churches to borrow money to fund disaffiliation.
- "How to disaffiliate" webinars and rallies have happened all over the country.
- Lies, misinformation, and mischaracterizations have been propagated consistently. The most generous statement that could be made about traditionalist leadership in the WCA and GMC is that they have allowed lies to be told without correcting those who have told the lies.
In summary, what we have experienced over the last 18-24 months is a full-frontal assault on the denomination. The forces aligned against the United Methodist Church have pulled out all the stops in their fight. They have given it their absolute best shot, using a repugnant means-justify-the-ends ethic to destroy the denomination.
They got 25%. That's it? All of the rhetoric, money, and energy and they could only get 25% to go along with them? I know this is no consolation for the churches and communities that have been torn apart by their efforts. The churches whose pastors have forced votes and the small towns who will now struggle to have any viable congregations because of the unnecessary destruction to relationships will not be relieved to know that there could have been even more suffering. They will still hurt and struggle to rebuild. The very groups saying they are committed to the Good News have done tremendous damage to the actual sharing of the Good News. I don't want to minimize that. At the same time, to only have one in four churches follow you when so much has been invested is, frankly, not very impressive. It is evidence for the point that so many of us made in 2019 and beyond that the Methodist movement is better defined by who we are for than who we are against. We actually are still a "big tent" denomination and we will not be bullied into giving up grace.
In the years ahead, the UMC will continue to experience decline. You will be told that this is the inevitable result of our bankrupt theology and what we have experienced over the last few years. That's not true. It will be because of the demographic and sociological trends that have affected every denomination. But our end is not inevitable. It's not even likely. A house divided against itself cannot stand (Mark 3:25). Those who have insisted on fighting are leaving. Those who are willing to live in peace are staying. Having withstood this onslaught, the UMC will now be positioned for a brighter future of sharing the Good News of the life, death, and resurrection of Jesus.
